Jul 15, 2022

  • Kiley McDanielESPN MLB Insider

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    • ESPN MLB Insider
    • Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
    • Has worked for four MLB teams.

The 2022 MLB draft is just hours away, so it's time for my final mock draft update, Mock 3.1. I've taken the last of the useful information that has trickled out this weekend -- when teams teams finalized plans and put out feelers about expectations with agents -- to project the full 80-pick first day of this year's event, which will take place July 17-19 in Los Angeles,

Agents are increasingly frustrated that teams are communicating less and later in the process than in past years. Teams seem to be leaning into the espionage aspects of their jobs more this year, convinced that the draft is some high stakes geopolitical negotiation.

I ran through about 20 phone calls before wrapping this up and it's still true that nobody knows anything for sure. I've been leaning more than usual on profiling teams' past picks and general preferences along with who their decision-making group was seeing late and who they have been connected to for a while rather than focusing on useless last-second rumors.

The final group at the first overall pick is Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee, and Elijah Green. They all have some real chance to still be No. 1, but momentum is growing that Jones will be the pick and the top ten will be some version of chalk rather than pure mayhem. It starts getting tricky with too many variables to accurately predict around the Angels at No. 13 based on who will be on the board and who they'll take. Another factor is who takes Kumar Rocker and/or the prep pitchers that could also float down to the compensation round or early second round with big numbers attached. I'll miss by 20-plus picks on a couple of these players for this reason, but I'd bet my projected bonuses would be reasonably close.

This is the order in which I think the picks will come off the board, while my rankings (linked below) is the order in which I'd pick the players.

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1. Baltimore Orioles

Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit

The buzz has been consistent for a couple of weeks now that Jones would be a full-freight option here, and Termarr Johnson is the most likely of the other options because he'd come with the biggest discount due to likely slipping to the sixth pick if he doesn't go here. I've been saying I think it's roughly a two-thirds chance of Jones and one-third chance of "other," with Johnson the overwhelming choice, but Jackson Holliday (likely priced between Jones and Johnson) also mentioned as the other leading candidate. The savings to use later in the draft by going with Johnson could be $2 million or more and, at that point, even I would entertain taking my second-rated player (Johnson) instead of my top-rated player (Jones). Anyone outside of those three would be much harder to explain. The day they sign, I would have all three close on a top-100 of minor leaguers: Jones at 24th, Johnson at 30th and Holliday at 36th, with no one else in this class making the top 75.

This is extremely similar to the situation that landed the Astros SS Carlos Correa as the top overall pick in the 2012 draft when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was Houston's scouting director. Correa signed for $2.4 million under slot and Houston used the savings to sign Lance McCullers as the No. 41 pick.

The two factors that will help dictate this decision for Elias are 1) what's the gap in his mind between Johnson and Jones and 2) who does he think he could land with that extra savings that may not be attainable otherwise?

You'd need a player who is worth/demanding $3.5 million or more and can make it down the board to pick 33. A couple of weeks ago, Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton was a candidate, and he still could be, but now it's looking like he won't get out of the middle of the first round. Illinois prep LHP Noah Schultz is seen as the player hardest to sign still in the draft pool, but he has the traits that Baltimore tends to like in pitchers, could get to their next pick and is a legitimate mid-first round talent in some scouts' eyes.

Beyond those two, it gets hard to find a player for well over $3 million and then Baltimore, if they opt for savings at the first pick, would have trouble stringing together $2 million type players and have spent the bulk of its money by the top of the fourth round, when players of that caliber that are signable are usually all picked so it becomes a more challenging strategy. Some later pick targets include Gavin Turley, Jordan Beck (if he gets down there), and Ryan Cermak.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit

I think the D-backs really want Druw Jones to get here and could do their best to make that happen, financially speaking. If he doesn't, it looks like Holliday would be the pick. It has long been rumored Brooks Lee is a cut-rate option here and I think Elijah Green is still being considered as well, but I would wager that it's Jones or Holliday in the end.

3. Texas Rangers

Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

As with Arizona, I think Texas also wants Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday reach this pick and the Rangers may also do what they can to make that more likely. I think Texas will be happy with Parada here, and Elijah Green is the only other name I've heard connected to this pick.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)

This is where the picks get harder to handicap. I think Pittsburgh would take Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday or Kevin Parada if they get here, and one of them would if Termarr Johnson goes first. Parada may seem like an odd pick after taking another college catcher first overall last year, but with robo umps likely coming, a universal DH already here and Henry Davis/Parada both being hit-first guys with some chance to contribute at other positions, it feels like a modern approach to the position to keep both guys fresh.

Beyond those three, Collier seems like the leading candidate. He'll likely go No. 7 or 8 if he doesn't go here, so that would come with small savings, if any. Campbell SS Zach Neto is gaining late steam and would come with much bigger savings. I tend to think if Baltimore takes Druw Jones, Pittsburgh wouldn't have Jones/Holliday/Parada to choose from, so the Pirates could see an opportunity to take pole position in remaining pool money by doing a heavy under-slot deal here -- with Neto the likely candidate.

That seems less likely if Baltimore takes a cheaper option at the first pick, so think of that as either/or for Pittsburgh or Baltimore. The potential prize of having the biggest pool at its next pick for Pittsburgh would be a $3.5 million-ish type player (Brock Porter is a candidate along with the aforementioned Noah Schultz) who other teams likely couldn't afford to take.

Elijah Green and (to a lesser degree) Cade Horton both have some buzz here, but I think Parada, Collier and Neto cover the various scenarios. If they're playing it close to the slot value at their next pick, prep 2B Nick Morabito is a target.

5. Washington Nationals

Elijah Green, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), Miami commit

Mock 3.0 pick: Jacob Berry, RF, LSU

6. Miami Marlins

Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA), Arizona State commit

If Druw Jones goes first, I think Termarr Johnson draws some interest at the No. 4 pick but will be on the outside looking in, and then he'll land here -- with the Cubs mad that they won't get a shot at him. The Marlins also seem to, like every team, have interest in Jones, Holliday and Parada if they get here, with Jacob Berry also an option. If their board "blows up," or all the players they want go right in front of them, I think we could see a surprise under-slot move here, with some chatter they could go grab the first pitcher in the draft (Cade Horton? Connor Prielipp?) for savings, then look to spend those savings on their next two picks.

7. Chicago Cubs

Brooks Lee, 3B, Cal Poly

Mock 3.0 pick: Elijah Green, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), Miami commit

8. Minnesota Twins

Gavin Cross, RF, Virginia Tech

Mock 3.0 pick: Brooks Lee, 3B, Cal Poly

9. Kansas City Royals

Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma

Mock 3.0 pick: Gavin Cross, RF, Virginia Tech

10. Colorado Rockies

Jacob Berry, RF LSU

Mock 3.0 pick: Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma

11. New York Mets

Justin Crawford, CF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV), LSU commit

The rumors for months have been Justin Crawford and Jett Williams on a deal, and with Elijah Green, Gavin Cross and Cade Horton off the board in this scenario, the options have dwindled a bit. I've got Crawford and Williams as the Mets' two picks, but Dylan Lesko or Connor Prielipp (backup upside if Green doesn't get here) and Spencer Jones (a college bat, but with some upside) are also threats. Later, keep an eye on VCU 3B Tyler Locklear and prep 2B Nick Morabito.

12. Detroit Tigers

Zach Neto, SS, Campbell

Mock 3.0 pick: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

13. Los Angeles Angels

Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit

This is the first place that I'm hearing a lot of Kumar Rocker buzz. Usually players don't go to the first place you hear them rumored, and rumors are likely all we'll get before the draft on Rocker as his camp plays it close to the vest and teams are still deciding where they stand on his medical and bonus situation. The situation has some parallels to the Angels' 2021 pick of Sam Bachman.

After taking 20 pitchers last year, the buzz is pitching-heavy again this year (though with a couple college bats sprinkled in), and I think the Angels are leaning prep pitching at their top pick. Dylan Lesko, Barriera, and Robby Snelling have been mentioned (Brock Porter less so) while Rocker and Gabriel Hughes or under-slot option Justin Campbell are the college names connected. Barriera and Lesko seem to have a hot zone from here to the back of the teens. Prep RHP Eli Jerzembeck is a target for the Angels' next pick.

14. New York Mets

Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary's HS (MI), Clemson commit

Mock 3.0 pick: Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall Heath HS (TX), Mississippi State commit

15. San Diego Padres

Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit

The Padres historically act very bold under GM A.J. Preller in all markets and often will take the "raise or fold" approach to the draft, refusing to pay exactly the slot at their top picks. This is the most likely spot for Lesko, but is also gaining steam as a Kumar Rocker landing spot, with some small chance Rocker could be floated to the Padres' comp pick.

The talk has been mostly tied to upside prospects here, with basically all of the first-round prep arms mentioned along with up-the-middle, plus-runner preps including Justin Crawford, Jett Williams and Cole Young. J.R. Ritchie is also a fit at San Diego's second pick, as are two prep 80 runners: Chandler Pollard and Jeric Curtis. The Padres also may meet the price for pop-up prep RHP Gary Gill-Hill at a late pick.

16. Cleveland Guardians

Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-Cities (Independent)

Mock 3.0 pick: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell

17. Philadelphia Phillies

Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall Heath HS (TX), Mississippi State commit

Mock 3.0 pick: Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee

18. Cincinnati Reds

Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (PA), Duke commit

Mock 3.0 pick: Jordan Beck, RF, Tennessee

19. Oakland Athletics

Dylan Beavers, RF, Cal

Mock 3.0 pick: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

20. Atlanta Braves

Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga

Mock 3.0 pick: Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State

21. Seattle Mariners

Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama

This is probably the floor for Prielipp and it's a solid match for both sides. I've heard mostly college bats here, as that's what the board is giving them, including Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton.

22. St. Louis Cardinals

Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

Mock 3.0 pick: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga

23. Toronto Blue Jays

Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

Mock 3.0 pick: Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC), LSU commit

24. Boston Red Sox

Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee

Mock 3.0 pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City (Independent)

25. New York Yankees

Spencer Jones, RF Vanderbilt

Mock 3.0 pick: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (PA), Duke commit

26. Chicago White Sox

Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC), LSU commit

Mock 3.0 pick: Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

27. Milwaukee Brewers

Chase DeLauter, RF, James Madison

Mock 3.0 pick: Jacob Melton, CF, Oregon State

28. Houston Astros

Jacob Melton, CF, Oregon State

Mock 3.0 pick: Brock Jones, CF, Stanford

29. Tampa Bay Rays

Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen (NV) HS, LSU commit

I think Tampa Bay, sitting in an area with several college bats potentially available, will instead look to the prep pitching class to either take who's falling (Robby Snelling in this situation), or maybe -- due to having multiple picks -- to jump the market on over-slot prep arms (Jacob Miller, Owen Murphy, Brock Porter, Jackson Ferris) trying to get floated to other teams' second picks. Brady Neal could be a target here or in the second round to keep him from going to LSU. Same goes for Henry Bolte.

30. San Francisco Giants

Reggie Crawford, LHP, UConn

Mock 3.0 pick: Dylan Beavers, RF, Cal

Compensation picks

31. Colorado Rockies - Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville

(Mock 3.0 pick: Spencer Jones, RF, Vanderbilt)

32. Cincinnati Reds - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

(Mock 3.0 pick: Sterlin Thompson, RF, Florida)

Competitive balance round A

33. Baltimore Orioles - Jordan Beck, RF, Tennessee

(Mock 3.0 pick: Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma)

34. Arizona Diamondbacks - Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina

(Mock 3.0 pick: Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville)

35. Atlanta Braves - Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH), Louisville commit

36. Pittsburgh Pirates - J.R. Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge HS (WA), UCLA commit

(Mock 3.0 pick: Chase DeLauter, RF, James Madison)

37. Cleveland Guardians - Sterlin Thompson, RF, Florida

(Mock 3.0 pick: Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL), Ole Miss commit)

38. Colorado Rockies - Cayden Wallace, 3B, Arkansas

39. San Diego Padres - Henry Bolte, CF, Palo Alto HS (CA), Texas commit

(Mock 3.0 pick: Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina)

40. Los Angeles Dodgers - Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Crowder JC (MO), LSU commit

(Mock 3.0 pick: Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina)

(The Dodgers' first pick drops 10 spots, from 30 to 40, due to exceeding the competitive balance tax threshold.)

41. Boston Red Sox - Roman Anthony, RF, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL), Ole Miss commit

(Compensation for unsigned 2021 second-round pick Jud Fabian.)